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ECB/CFS Conference Monetary Policy-Making under Uncertainty

Welcome
Programme
Paper abstracts/downloads
Organisation
Participants
Contact
Proceedings of the Conference

Welcome

The European Central Bank and the Center for Financial Studies at Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität in Frankfurt
are organizing a Conference on Monetary Policy-Making under Uncertainty

Frankfurt December 3/4, 1999
European Central Bank - Room # C IV

Please note that attendance is by invitation only.

The conference organizers: Ignazio Angeloni - Frank Smets - Axel Weber back to top

Programme

(status: November 22, 1999)

Friday, December 3, 1999

9:00

Introduction: W. Duisenberg (European Central Bank)
Morning Session
Chair: J. Taylor (Stanford University)
9:15

Policy Panel:
Monetary Policy-Making under Uncertainty

Participants:
S. Cecchetti (Ohio State University)
C. Freedman (Bank of Canada)
O. Issing (European Central Bank)
L. Leiderman (Bank of Israel)
L. Papademos (Bank of Greece)
11:00

Coffee break
11:30

L.E.O. Svensson (Stockholm University and Princeton University) and M. Woodford (Princeton University):
"Indicator variables for optimal policy"

Discussants:
J. Viñals (Banco de España)
G. Tabellini (Bocconi University)
13:00

Luncheon
Afternoon Session
Chair: A.A. Weber (Center for Financial Studies)
14:15

T. Sargent (Stanford University and Hoover Institution) and In-Koo Cho (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign):
""Escaping Nash Inflation"

Discussants:
R. Marimon (European University Institute)
J. Stock (Harvard University)
15:45

A. Levin, V. Wieland and J. Williams (Federal Reserve Board):
"The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty"

Discussants:
C. Bean (London School of Economics)
S. Gerlach (Bank for International Settlements)
17:00

Coffee break
17:30

A. Orphanides (Federal Reserve Board):
"The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation"

Discussants:
J. Galí (New York University)
P. DeGrauwe (Leuven University)
19:30

Dinner (Venue to be defined)

Keynote Speech: A. Blinder (Princeton University)

Saturday, December 4, 1999

Morning Session
Chair: V. Gaspar (European Central Bank)
9:00

G. Rudebusch (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco):
"Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty"

Discussants:
B. McCallum (Carnegie Mellon University)
H. Jensen (University of Copenhagen)
10:30

Coffee break
11:00
Shorter presentations:
- M. Ellison and N. Valla (European University Institute):
  "Learning, Uncertainty and Central Bank Activism in an Economy with Strategic Interactions"
- P. Geraats (University of California, Berkeley):
  "Transparency and Reputation: Should the ECB publish its Inflation Forecast ?"
- B. Winkler (European Central Bank):
  "On the Need for Clarity in Monetary Policy Making"
- P. Schellekens (Harvard University, London School of Economics and UFSIA):
  "Caution and Conservatism in the Making of Monetary Policy"
- U. Söderström (Sveriges Riksbank):
  "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters"
Discussants:
A. Cukierman (Tel Aviv University)
M. Goodfriend (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
C. Walsh (University of California, Santa Cruz)
13:00

Luncheon

Paper Abstracts and Downloads

Wim Duisenberg: Introductory statement t o the conference on "Monetary policy-making under uncertainty", organised jointly by the European Central Bank and the Center for Financial Studies of the University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, 3 December 1999.
Otmar Issing: The monetary policy of the ECB in a world of uncertainty, contribution to the policy panel at the conference on "Monetary policy-making under uncertainty", organised jointly by the European Central Bank and the Center for Financial Studies of the University of Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, 3 December 1999.

The following Papers are downloadable as pdf-files:

Cho, In-Koo/Sargent, Thomas J. (1999): Escaping Nash inflation, June 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 23), pdf 1.2 MB, en
Ellison, Martin/Valla, Natacha (1999): Learning, uncertainty and central bank activism in an economy with strategic interactions, August 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 28), pdf 1 MB, en
Geraats, Petra M. (1999): Transparency and reputation: Should the ECB publish its inflation forecasts? pdf 277 kB, en
Levin, Andrew/Wieland, Volker/Williams, John C. (1999): The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty, pdf 327 kB, en
Orphanides, Athanasios (1999): The quest for prosperity without inflation, March 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 15), pdf 604 kB, en
Rudebusch, Glenn D. (1999): Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty, February 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 14), pdf 556 kB, en
Schellekens, Philip (1999): Caution and conservatism in the making of monetary policy, July 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 25), pdf 630 kB, en
Söderström, Ulf (1999): Monetary policy with uncertain parameters, February 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 13), pdf 390 kB, en
Svensson, Lars E.O./Woodford, Michael (1999): Indicator variables for optimal policy, February 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 12), pdf 324 kB, en
Winkler, Bernhard (1999): Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making, August 2000, (ECB Working Paper No. 26), pdf 876 kB, en

Organisation

Ignazio Angeloni - Frank Smets
European Central Bank
Kaiserstraße 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main

Phone: +49 69 13 44 0 (switchboard)
Fax: +49 69 13 44 60 00 (central)

Internet: http://www.ecb.europa.eu

Axel A. Weber
Center for Financial Studies
Taunusanlage 6
D-60329 Frankfurt am Main

Phone: +49 69 24 29 41 13
Fax: +49 69 24 29 41 77

Email: weber@ifk-cfs.de
Internet: http://www.ifk-cfs.de

Participants

Ralf Ahrens	Center for Financial Studies
Robert Amano	Bank of Canada
Ignazio Angeloni	European Central Bank
Philippe Bacchetta	Studienzentrum Gerzensee
Christoph Balz	Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft
Tamim Bayoumi	International Monetary Fund
Charles R. Bean	London School of Economics
Luis Miguel Beleza	Banco Comercial Português
Alan S. Blinder	The Brookings Institution
Marten Blix	Sveriges Riksbank
Peter Bofinger	Universität Würzburg
Klaus Brune	Bridge News/Fokus Deutschland
Christian Burckhardt	Börsenzeitung
Rainer Bürgin	Bridge News
Stephen G. Cecchetti	Ohio State University
In-Koo Cho	University of Illinois
Giancarlo Corsetti	Yale University
Alex Cukierman	Tel-Aviv University, Berglas School of Economics
Paul De Grauwe	Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
Wim Duisenberg	European Central Bank
Jörg Eigendorf	Die Welt
Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger	College of Europe and Tilburg University
Martin Ellison	European University Institute
Pieter Elshout	Het Financieele Dagblad
Walter Engert	Bank of Canada
Roger E.A. Farmer	European University Institute
Martin Fase	De Nederlandsche Bank N.V.
John Frain	Central Bank of Ireland
Charles Freedman	Bank of Canada
Jordi Gali	Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Vitor Gaspar	European Central Bank
Wolfgang Gebauer	Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University Frankfurt
Petra M. Geraats	University of California, Berkeley
Stefan Gerlach	Bank for International Settlements
Ernest Gnan	Österreichische Nationalbank
Marvin Goodfriend	Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Daniel Gros	Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University Frankfurt
Hideo Hayakawa	Bank of Japan
Alexandra Heath	Reserve Bank of Australia
Heinz Herrmann	Deutsche Bundesbank
Eduard Hochreiter	Österreichische Nationalbank
Gert Jan Hogeweg	European Central Bank
Eui-Gak Hwang	The Bank of Korea
Gerhard Illing	Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University Frankfurt
Otmar Issing	European Central Bank
Per Jansson	Sveriges Riksbank
Henrik Jensen	University of Copenhagen
Hugo Frey Jensen	Danmarks Nationalbank
Mike Kennedy	OECD
Karl Knappe	Bundesverband Deutscher Banken
Petra Köhler	Dresdner Bank AG
Reiner König	Deutsche Bundesbank
Fritz Kral	Handelsblatt
Marietta Kurm-Engels	Handelsblatt
Leonardo Leiderman	Bank of Israel
Andrew Levin	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Francesco Lippi	Banca d'Italia
Ramon Marimon	European University Institute
Bennett T. McCallum	Carnegie-Mellon University
Jacques Mélitz	Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique
Mathias Moersch	DG BANK AG
Chikako Mogi	Dow Jones Newswires
Fernando Manuel Monteiro Martins	Banco de Portugal
Carlo Monticelli	Deutsche Bank AG
Peter Mooslechner	Österreichische Nationalbank
Frank Moss	European Central Bank
Petra Münster	Neue Züricher Zeitung
Edward Nelson	Bank of England
Judit Nemenyi	National Bank of Hungary
Pedro Neves	Banco de Portugal
Thomas O'Connell	Central Bank of Ireland
Athanasios Orphanides	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Lukas Papademos	National Bank of Greece
Francesco Papadia	European Central Bank
Vincent Périlleux	National Bank of Belgium
Paolo Pesenti	Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Adam Posen	Institute for International Economics
Simon Potter	Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Jorma Pöysä	Kauppalehti
Jan Fredrik Qvigstad	Norges Bank
Assaf Razin	Tel-Aviv University
Hermann Remsperger	Deutsche Bundesbank
Anja Rosengart	Bridge News/Fokus Deutschland
Glenn D. Rudebusch	Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
John Ryan	PA Consulting Group
Mark Salmon	City University Business School
Ramon Santaularia	Agencia EFE
Thomas J. Sargent	Stanford University
Philip Schellekens	Harvard University
Jean Pierre Schoder	Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
Dirk Schumacher	Center for Financial Studies
H. M. Scobie	European Economics and Financial Centre
Franz Seitz	Fachhochschule Amberg-Weiden
Tom Sims	Dow Jones
Frank Smets	European Central Bank
Ulf Söderström	Sveriges Riksbank
James H. Stock	Harvard University
Lars E.O. Svensson	Princeton University
Guido Tabellini	Università Bocconi
Juha Tarkka	Bank of Finland
John B. Taylor	Stanford University
Claus Tigges	Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Natacha Valla	European University Institute
Roland Alexander Van Gessel	De Telegraaf
Adrien Verdelhan	Banque de France
José Vinals	Banco de Espana
David Vines	University of Oxford
Carl Walsh	University of California, Santa Cruz
Norbert Walter	Deutsche Bank Research
Axel A. Weber	Center for Financial Studies
Jens Weidmann	Statistisches Bundesamt
David M. Wessel	The Wall Street Journal
Steve Whitehouse	AFX News
Volker W. Wieland	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
John C. Williams	Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Bernhard Winkler	European Central Bank
Rafael Wouters	National Bank of Belgium
Bendert Zevenbergen	Het Financieele Dagblad
Mathias Zurlinden	Swiss National Bank

Contact

For logistic and travel information, please contact:

Jutta Heeg (CFS)
Phone: +49 69 24 29 41 20
Fax: +49 69 24 29 41 77

Email: heeg@ifk-cfs.de

For programme information, please contact:

Rosanna Bartolozzi (ECB)
Phone: +49 69 13 44 78 90
Fax: +49 69 13 44 65 75

Email: Rosanna.Bartolozzi@ecb.int

Ralf Ahrens (CFS)
Phone: +49 69 24 29 41 12
Fax: +49 69 24 29 41 77

Email: ahrens@ifk-cfs.de

Proceedings of the Conference

Proceedings of the Conference pdf 2.6 MB, en back to top

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