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Almost five years after the first open conference organised by the ECB in 1999 on “Monetary policy under uncertainty”, the European Central Bank is organising a conference on a similar topic, “Monetary policy and imperfect knowledge”, on 14-15 October 2004 in Würzburg, Germany. The idea behind this conference is to examine recent developments in the literature on optimal monetary policy under learning in the light of the practical experience of central banking in an environment of pervasive uncertainty. Popular current topics in the academic literature are the implications of private sector and central bank learning for optimal monetary policy, as well as the question of how central banks should respond to low-probability, high-impact risks, such as a financial crisis or a deflationary spiral. The aim of the conference is to provide a forum where policy-makers and researchers can exchange ideas and discuss their experience of such topics. Please note that participation in the conference is by invitation only.
| 8:00 - 10:00 p.m. | Welcome reception |
| 8:45 - 9:00 a.m. | Welcome, Otmar Issing (ECB) |
| Opening remarks, Vítor Gaspar (ECB) | |
| 9:00 - 10:15 a.m. | The conquest of US inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty, Thomas Sargent (New York University) (with Tim Cogley) pdf 315 kB, en |
| Discussants: | Bennett T. McCallum (Carnegie Mellon University) pdf 72 kB, en Ulf Söderström (Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi) pdf 122 kB, en |
| 10:15 - 11.30 a.m. | Near-rational exuberance, Seppo Honkapohja (University of Cambridge), Jim Bullard (Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis) and George Evans (University of Oregon) pdf 456 kB, en |
| Discussants: | Albert Marcet (Institut d'Analisi Economica) pdf 56 kB, en Martin Ellison (Bank of England and Warwick University) pdf 63 kB, en |
| 11:30 - 11:45 a.m. | Coffee |
| 11:45 a.m.- 1:00 p.m. | Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge, Athanasios Orphanides (Federal Reserve Board) and John Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) pdf 192 kB, en |
| Discussants: | Stephen Cecchetti (Brandeis University) pdf 133 kB, en Ricardo Reis (Princeton University) pdf 76 kB, en |
| 1:00 - 2:30 p.m. | Lunch |
| 2:30 - 3:45 p.m. | Are structural VARs useful guides for developing business cycle theories?, Varadarajan V. Chari (University of Minnesota) (with Patrick Kehoe and Ellen McGrattan) pdf 311 kB, en |
| Discussants: | Jordi Galí (CREI) pdf 113 kB, en Martin Flodén (Stockholm School of Economics) pdf 114 kB, en |
| 3:45 - 4:00 p.m. | Coffee |
| 4:00 - 5:15 p.m. | Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models, Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania) and Marco Del Negro (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) pdf 212 kB, en |
| Discussants: | Ramon Marimon (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) pdf 233 kB, en Kosuke Aoki (London School of Economics) pdf 48 kB, en |
| 6:00 p.m. | Dinner |
| 9:00 - 10:15 a.m. | Monetary policy with judgement, Lars Svensson (Princeton University) pdf 658 kB, en |
| Discussants: | Frederic Mishkin (Columbia University) pdf 25 kB, en Martin Schneider (New York University) pdf 179 kB, en |
| 10:15 - 11:30 a.m. | Parameter misspecification and robust monetary policy rules, Carl Walsh (University of California, Santa Cruz) pdf 435 kB, en |
| Discussants: | Alexei Onatski (Columbia University) pdf 259 kB, en Klaus Adam (ECB) pdf 235 kB, en |
| 11:30 - 11:45 a.m. | Coffee |
| 11:45 a.m.- 1:00p.m. | The robustness of interest rate rules in models of the euro area, Günter Coenen (ECB), Ramon Adalid-Lozano (ECB), Peter McAdam (ECB) and Stefano Siviero (Banca d’Italia) pdf 211 kB, en |
| Discussants: | Glenn Rudebusch (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) pdf 64 kB, en Volker Wieland (University of Frankfurt) pdf 204 kB, en |
| 1:00 - 2:30 | Lunch |
| 2:30 - 4:30 p.m. | Panel discussion: How should policy makers deal with low probability, high-impact events? |
Chair: Anil Kashyap (University of Chicago) |
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| 4:30 - 5:00 p.m. | Coffee / end of workshop |
For each paper, the author has 30 minutes and the discussants have 15 minutes each, with 15 minutes for general discussion.
Organisers:
